As the United States prepares to elect its next president, New Zealand is closely watching the election results, particularly for their potential impact on trade. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stresses that the U.S. election outcome, whether it results in a Democratic or Republican administration, will be pivotal for New Zealand’s economy. Luxon has underlined the need for New Zealand to build and maintain strong diplomatic ties across political divides in the United States, a country with one of the most complex governmental systems in the world.

Why the U.S. Election Matters for New Zealand Trade

The United States is a major trading partner for New Zealand, making the political direction of the U.S. highly significant for Kiwi exporters. New Zealand’s economy, being export-driven, requires stability and predictability in its trade relations. Luxon’s approach focuses on maintaining rapport with any incoming administration, knowing that diplomatic adaptability will be key to safeguarding New Zealand’s trade interests.

Building Relationships Across U.S. Political Divisions

Luxon has emphasized that successful engagement with the U.S. government means working with both Republicans and Democrats, especially given the unique structure of the American political system. In a federal system where state governments wield considerable power and party control can be divided across branches, New Zealand will need to foster relationships at various levels.

“When I was in the U.S. in July for NATO, I spent considerable time with leaders on both sides of the aisle,” Luxon said, reflecting his commitment to bipartisan relationships. This approach ensures that New Zealand can adapt its strategies regardless of which party wins control of the Senate, Congress, or the presidency.

Preparing for Potential Policy Shifts

One of the uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election is the potential for new trade tariffs, particularly if a more protectionist administration takes office. Luxon acknowledged the possibility of tariffs but avoided speculation, instead reinforcing the need for readiness and flexibility. “We work in a contingency environment with plan A, B, and C all the time,” he explained. This proactive approach ensures New Zealand can adjust quickly to new U.S. trade policies.

Tariff policy could vary dramatically depending on who is in office, especially given past indications from Republicans, including Donald Trump, of an interest in imposing tariffs to protect American industries. However, Luxon’s comments indicate that New Zealand will approach the situation with strategic planning rather than pre-emptive concern.

The Importance of U.S. Trade for New Zealand’s Economy

Trade with the U.S. is essential to New Zealand’s goal of doubling export value, making the American market highly valuable. The U.S. election outcome could potentially impact not only tariffs but also regulatory standards and market access, especially for industries like agriculture and technology. Luxon’s government remains committed to enhancing New Zealand’s presence in the American market, positioning New Zealand to capitalize on growth opportunities while safeguarding against potential trade barriers.

Navigating a Complex Political Landscape

The U.S. political landscape is known for its intricacy, where power can be divided across multiple branches and states, often with opposing priorities. Luxon has lived in North America and understands the need for an adaptable approach, noting that the Senate and Congress frequently end up under split party control. For New Zealand, this means engaging with a wide network of policymakers and influencers across party lines.

Luxon’s approach to U.S. relations is strategic: he acknowledges the broad influence and scale of American governance and stresses the importance of being prepared to work with all levels of U.S. government to ensure New Zealand’s interests are well represented.

Looking Ahead: A Diplomatic and Flexible Approach

Luxon’s primary message is clear: New Zealand will focus on adaptability and diplomacy to sustain strong trade relations with the U.S. He stresses that speculation is unhelpful and that New Zealand should instead ensure it is well-positioned to work with any administration. This approach is consistent with Luxon’s long-term vision for New Zealand, which aims to double the country’s export value while remaining resilient to global political shifts.

As the U.S. election day nears, Luxon will continue to monitor developments closely, ensuring that New Zealand is ready to engage with the next American administration. His stance is one of cautious optimism—trusting that New Zealand’s proactive relationship-building efforts will enable continued trade success regardless of the election outcome.