As Election Day draws near, all eyes are on seven critical swing states that could decide the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Nearly tied in these battlegrounds, both candidates are working tirelessly to win over diverse voter bases with unique political leanings. These swing state demographics are pivotal, as they reveal how shifts in voter preferences and population changes may tip the scales.

Key Factors Influencing Swing State Demographics

The outcome in each of these swing states will depend on a range of factors, from education levels to race and ethnicity. Harris and Trump face a delicate balancing act, needing to secure key demographic groups while addressing their concerns. Here’s a closer look at how specific groups and trends within each state might impact the final vote.

1. North Carolina: A Surge of Suburban and College-Educated Voters

In North Carolina, the electorate is shifting thanks to a rising population of suburban and college-educated voters who tend to lean Democratic. Once a reliably red state, North Carolina’s evolving demographics have positioned it as a true battleground.

Suburban voters here, as in other states, are leaning leftward. About 51% support Harris, compared to 39% who supported Biden in 2020. At the same time, the state has one of the largest shares of rural voters who remain solidly Republican, posing a challenge for Harris. While Harris has captured a majority of Black voters, she’s still polling below Biden’s 2020 levels, suggesting there’s room for growth.

2. Pennsylvania: The Influence of Philadelphia’s Suburbs

In Pennsylvania, the battle is centered around Philadelphia’s suburban “collar counties.” These areas, which have a population greater than both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh combined, were crucial to Biden’s 2020 victory. The counties may play a similar role in securing a win for Harris.

The demographic of non-college-educated white voters—a key base for Trump—has been shrinking in Pennsylvania and other swing states. In contrast, college-educated white voters, who are increasingly Democratic, have grown by eight percentage points in Pennsylvania since 2008. Harris’s campaign also aims to attract disillusioned Republicans, particularly those who supported Nikki Haley in the primary, a demographic that, if won, could provide Harris with the necessary edge.

3. Georgia: Rising Diversity in Atlanta’s Suburbs

Georgia, which has seen dramatic political shifts in recent years, has the highest share of Black voters among all swing states—now making up 33% of the electorate. However, Harris is down by eight points with Black voters compared to Biden’s 2020 numbers, while Trump has gained some ground.

The rapid growth and diversification of the Atlanta metro area, which accounts for 60% of Georgia’s vote, have played a major role in shifting Georgia from a reliably red state to a competitive one. The state has also seen a rise in college-educated suburban voters who were instrumental in Biden’s 2020 victory. These voters, who remain Democratic-leaning, are key for Harris in maintaining a competitive edge.

4. Michigan: Union Voters and the Arab American Community

Michigan is another crucial swing state where college-educated voters have increased in number and continue to lean Democratic. The state’s large union population also remains a focal point, with both candidates vying for support from the unionized workforce. Harris holds a significant lead among United Auto Workers members, though Trump has worked to sway union members by criticizing the administration’s electric vehicle policies.

One unique aspect of Michigan’s demographics is its sizable Arab American population, making up 4% of the electorate. The Arab American vote, typically Democratic-leaning, has shown signs of wavering due to recent U.S. foreign policy stances. A boycott movement among Arab Americans could potentially impact Harris’s performance in Michigan.

5. Wisconsin: A Swing Between Rural and Urban Shifts

Wisconsin, the whitest of the swing states, presents a unique political landscape where rural and urban areas have been trending in opposite directions. Rural areas, though Republican, have shown a slight shift toward Democrats, while urban areas have moved to the right. Suburban voters in Wisconsin are leaning toward Harris, though they favored Trump in 2020.

The state’s demographics are particularly notable for the overall trend among rural voters toward the Democratic Party. However, for Harris to win Wisconsin, she’ll need a strong showing among suburban and urban voters to counterbalance Trump’s support in rural areas.

6. Nevada: Latino Voters and the Growing Independent Block

In Nevada, the Latino demographic, which has grown by 24% since 2010, holds substantial sway. Harris maintains a 14-point lead among Latino voters, although this is the narrowest margin a Democratic candidate has held in the last four elections. Trump, meanwhile, has made notable gains among this demographic across the nation.

Another crucial factor is the significant number of independent voters in Nevada. Mirroring national trends, these independents lean slightly Republican and now constitute the largest voter block in the state. This independent streak could be pivotal, as they will likely determine the outcome.

The Culinary Union, Nevada’s largest union, has endorsed Harris, potentially reinforcing her base in the state. However, Trump’s recent proposal to eliminate taxes on tips—a policy important to many union members—has also garnered attention, making Nevada a fiercely contested battleground.

7. Arizona: The Power of Latino and Independent Voters

Arizona’s demographic makeup is undergoing profound changes, with Latino voters now making up 25% of the eligible voting population. This group has shifted to the right in recent years, with Trump currently leading among Latinos in some polls. In 2020, Biden won Latino voters in Arizona by a substantial margin, a lead that Harris has struggled to maintain.

The independent vote is another factor in Arizona, as the number of independents has surpassed Democrats. This shift underscores the significance of Arizona’s swing state demographics and why it remains competitive.

Trump-Harris Gender Gap Across Swing States

One consistent trend across these states is the gender divide: Harris enjoys substantial support among women, while Trump leads among men. This gender gap is significant in shaping the swing state demographics. If turnout remains similar to 2020, this divide could give Harris an advantage in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, where women voters tend to favor Democrats. However, Trump’s strong showing among male voters could bolster his chances in states like Georgia and Arizona.

Big Number: Trump’s Edge in Arizona

Arizona’s swing state demographics reveal a narrow but notable lead for Trump, who is ahead by 2.4 points. This is the widest margin between the two candidates across all seven battleground states, highlighting the competitive nature of Arizona.